从财政僵局到金融压制：衰落剖析(From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression： Anatomy of a Fall)
研究问题：本研究探讨在财政僵局约束下，政府如何通过不同阶段的金融压制政策来避免违约并实现债务稳定。
主要结论：研究发现，当政府债务超过GDP的100%至120%时，政府会首先利用非银行部门配债，随后转向银行体系中的平衡表金融压制，并在必要时进入更具扭曲性的准财政金融压制阶段以稳控高额债务。
研究贡献：本研究构建并统一了金融压制政策的理论框架，揭示了不同干预阶段的经济成本及传导机制，并通过实证分析验证了该模型在先进经济体中的适用性，为政策制定提供了新的理论与实证依据。
Financial repression can be used to avoid a government default when fiscal policy is constrained. We present a model showing that optimal financial repression progresses through successive stages with increasing levels of distortion. Data from advanced economies suggest that the initial stage of financial repression typically begins when government debt exceeds 100% to 120% of GDP. Moreover, Japan’s experience suggests that countries such as the U.S. have significant leeway before resorting to the most distortive forms of financial repression.
论文原文：Olivier Jeanne,，From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression： Anatomy of a Fall，DOI---- 10.3386/w33395
单边脱碳是否能自我支付？(Does Unilateral Decarbonization Pay For Itself)
研究问题：本文探讨在全球温度上升背景下，大经济体是否可以通过单边脱碳实现成本自我抵销，并从经济角度判断这一策略的效益。
主要结论：研究发现，美国和欧盟在全球温度损害的估计下，通过实现超过80%的经济脱碳，其收益远高于边际减排成本，从而证明单边脱碳在大经济体中是经济可行的。
研究贡献：本文创新性地结合全球温度损害估计与气候–经济模型，提供了一个全新的量化方法来评估单边脱碳策略的成本效益，为气候政策制定和国际合作提供了重要的理论及实证依据。
This paper shows that unilateral decarbonization pays for itself in large economies. We estimate economic damages from global temperature shocks and combine them with a climate-economy model to construct Domestic Costs of Carbon： $226 per ton for the United States and $216 per ton for the European Union. When compared to marginal abatement costs, these values imply over 80% unilateral decarbonization for both economies, an order of magnitude larger than under conventional damages estimated based on local temperature.
论文原文：Adrien Bilal,Diego R. Känzig,，Does Unilateral Decarbonization Pay For Itself，DOI---- 10.3386/w33364
我们不再处于一个高斯世界：对官方外汇资产组成的启示(We Are Not in a Gaussian World Anymore： Implications for the Composition of Official Foreign Assets)
研究问题：本研究探讨了在宏观经济中加入厚尾（灾难性）风险后，金融一体化如何影响福利增益以及政府选择持有何种官方资产（非状态性与状态性资产）的难题。
主要结论：实证与理论模型表明，考虑宏观经济灾难风险（尤其是以幂律分布刻画的厚尾效应）后，金融一体化所带来的福利增益显著提高，同时催化政府增加非状态性自保险资产的持有比例。
研究贡献：该研究通过将宏观灾难风险引入国际金融市场及储备资产构成分析，提出了解释新兴市场大额外汇储备现象的全新理论框架，并为宏观风险管理与政策设计提供了重要的实证和理论支持。
In the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian crises, many emerging markets self-insured by accumulating international reserves (i.e., non-contingent assets) in excess of what many models predicted, while relying relatively little on state-contingent assets. This apparent over-reliance on self-insurance has been viewed as a puzzle in search of an explanation. A related, and still outstanding, puzzle is why the benefits of financial liberalization appear to be quite small and, yet, financial globalization has been unprecedented in recent decades. We show that these two puzzles can be solved by incorporating rare macroeconomic disasters in income risk. To this effect, we first fit a fat-tailed distribution to long output time series for 156 countries. We then develop a theoretical framework to quantify (i) the increase in welfare gains of financial integration and (ii) how the composition of official reserves (non-contingent and contingent) responds to bigger shocks. Our results show that fat tails lead to a sharp increase in both the gains of financial integration and self-insurance for standard values of the coefficient of risk aversion.
论文原文：José Andrée Camarena,Juan Pablo Medina,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin, We Are Not in a Gaussian World Anymore： Implications for the Composition of Official Foreign Assets，DOI---- 10.3386/w33366
降低成本：全球电动汽车电池产业中的在做中学习与政府政策(Drive Down the Cost： Learning by Doing and Government Policies in the Global EV Battery Industry)
研究问题：本研究探讨了全球电动汽车电池产业中，企业如何通过“边做边学”效应与政府政策（如消费者补贴和本土内容要求）的互动作用降低生产成本并推动电动汽车普及。
主要结论：实证发现，在控制了技术进步、规模经济和非电池生产成本等因素后，电池生产的学习率约为7.5%，“边做边学”效应贡献了35.5%的成本下降，并显著放大了消费者补贴的市场促进作用，同时上游供应商获益有限，且政策实施时机对经济效应至关重要。
研究贡献：本文通过构建并估计一套融合消费者选择、垂直议价及动态学习的结构性模型，利用跨国和企业级详细数据，首次系统量化了电池生产中的学习效应及其与政府补贴、保护政策的相互作用，为制定相关产业政策和丰富学习效应理论提供了新的实证方法和政策见解。
Electric vehicle (EV) battery costs have declined by more than 90% over the past decade. This study investigates the role of learning-by-doing (LBD) in driving this reduction and its interaction with two major government policies – consumer EV subsidies and local content requirements. Leveraging rich data on EV models and battery suppliers, we develop and estimate a structural model of the global EV industry that incorporates heterogeneous consumer choices and strategic pricing behaviors of EV producers and battery suppliers. The model allows us to recover battery costs for each EV model and quantify the extent of LBD in battery production. The learning rate is estimated to be 7.5% during our sample period after controlling for industry technological progress, economies of scale, input costs, and EV assembly experience. LBD magnifies the effectiveness of consumer EV subsidies and drives cross-country spillovers from these subsidies. Upstream battery suppliers capture only a minor share of LBD’s economic benefits, and consumer EV subsidies correct for the under-provision of learning and improve social welfare. China’s local content requirement helps domestic suppliers gain a competitive advantage at the cost of consumers and foreign suppliers but would have harmed domestic welfare if delayed by five years.
论文原文：Panle Jia Barwick,Hyuk-Soo Kwon,Shanjun Li,Nahim B. Zahur,，Drive Down the Cost： Learning by Doing and Government Policies in the Global EV Battery Industry，DOI---- 10.3386/w33378
通过提供流动性实现货币发展(Currency Development Through Liquidity Provision)
研究问题：本文探讨在当前地缘政治紧张背景下，是否以及如何通过安全资产供给与流动性服务的发展，构建一个规避西方制裁的平行离岸美元金融体系。
主要结论：研究表明，离岸美元市场可经历制裁驱动、临界中间和流动性驱动三个均衡阶段，其转型依赖于安全资产供应扩张和流动性技术改进，以及适时的政策协调。
研究贡献：本研究构建了一个基于流动性供给的动态均衡模型，不仅深化了对平行美元体系形成机制的理论认识，还为政策制定者提供了借鉴欧洲美元市场经验、推动离岸金融市场发展的实证参考。
Drawing on the experiences of the historical Eurodollar market and recent Chinese dollar bond issuances traded outside U.S. jurisdiction at negative spreads to Treasurys, we examine the conditions under which a parallel offshore dollar financial system that circumvents Western sanctions may emerge. We propose a model in which currency use is driven by liquidity provision and safe bond supply. We characterize three equilibrium regimes： high convenience yields emerge in both the initial sanctions-driven region and the final liquidity-driven region, separated by an intermediate region. Transitions between equilibria depend on safe-asset supply and liquidity technologies, in addition to endogenous dynamic complementarities.
论文原文：Antonio Coppola,Arvind Krishnamurthy,Chenzi Xu,，Currency Development Through Liquidity Provision，DOI---- 10.3386/w33390
通胀的微观起源(The Granular Origins of Inflation)
研究问题：本研究探讨了微观层面上各企业、产品类别（及部分零售商）的价格变动如何通过“granularity”效应影响和解释总体通胀波动，以及这种效应在不同经济体（发达经济体与新兴市场）和不同阶段（常态期与后疫情高通胀期）中的异质性。
主要结论：研究发现，在发达经济体中，企业层面和产品类别层面的杂散性分别贡献了约41%和15%的通胀方差，而在新兴市场中这种贡献相对较低，并且后疫情时期企业杂散性的相对重要性显著上升，部分缘于大型企业对共同冲击反应增强。
研究贡献：本研究通过扩展Gabaix（2011）的分解方法，构建了同时纳入企业、产品类别及零售商维度的微观通胀分解模型，为揭示通胀传导机制和评估市场结构对通胀影响提供了新的实证工具和理论贡献。
This paper uses barcode-level price data for 16 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 2005–2022 to investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component due to macroeconomic shocks and the granular residuals capturing the impact of individual firms and product categories, respectively. In advanced economies, the firm granular residual accounts for 41% of the variance of overall inflation, while the product category granular residual accounts for another 15%. Most of the variation in the firm granular residual is due to idiosyncratic shocks rather than to higher sensitivity of larger firms to common shocks. In the cross-section of countries, granular residuals are less important in economies with less concentrated market shares and higher inflation, such as emerging markets. Lastly, granular residuals contributed to the post-COVID inflation surge, with the firm-level component accounting for roughly one-third of the 2021-2022 inflation in advanced economies.
论文原文：Santiago Alvarez-Blaser,Raphael Auer,Sarah M. Lein,Andrei A. Levchenko,，The Granular Origins of Inflation，DOI---- 10.3386/w33404
美国联邦和州政府的财政进步性(Fiscal Progressivity of the U.S. Federal and State Governments)
研究问题：该研究旨在探讨美国联邦和各州税收与转移支付系统的累进性特征及其跨州差异，进一步分析不同税种和政策设计对收入再分配和迁移决策的影响。
主要结论：研究发现联邦税收和转移支付总体呈现累进性，而州与地方税收系统总体上接近比例性，但各州之间存在显著异质性，其中依赖销售、财产税的州往往呈现逆进性，且转移支付政策和税负水平与州际迁移和政治取向相关。
研究贡献：本研究通过整合多种微观与行政数据，并采用多种计量方法构建综合税收累进性指标，不仅丰富了现有关于财政再分配的理论分析，也为制定合理的州际财政政策提供了实证参考。
Combining a variety of survey and administrative data, this paper measures the progressivity of taxes and transfers at the U.S. federal level and separately for each state. The findings are as follows. (i) The federal tax and transfer system is progressive. (ii) State and local tax and transfer systems are close to proportional, on average. (iii) There is substantial heterogeneity in tax levels and tax progressivity across states. (iv) States that are funded mostly by sales and property taxes tend to have regressive tax systems and low average tax rates. States that are funded mostly by income taxes tend to have progressive tax systems and high average tax rates. (v) Regressive states are concentrated in the South and attract more inter-state net migration, especially of high-income migrants. (vi) State progressivity has remained broadly stable between 2005 and 2016. (vii) Incorporating corporate income and business taxes decreases average state progressivity but increases federal progressivity. (viii) Including spending on public goods and services as a transfer has a large positive impact on measured progressivity.
论文原文：Johannes Fleck,Jonathan Heathcote,Kjetil Storesletten,Giovanni L. Violante,，Fiscal Progressivity of the U.S. Federal and State Governments，DOI---- 10.3386/w33385
美国生活史(American Life Histories)
研究问题：本研究探讨如何利用大规模语言模型与人工核查相结合的方法，从1930年代美国联邦作家计划收集的生活叙事中系统提取关于个体生活满意度、幸福感及生活意义的高阶信息，并分析其与性别、种族、职业和迁移等因素之间的关联。
主要结论：研究发现，除了家庭和社区联系外，工作和职业是解释个体幸福感的重要来源，不同人群（如女性、非白人、低社会经济地位者和迁移者）在生活关键转折点及意义来源上表现出显著差异，同时正负转折点与总体满意度之间存在明确的统计关联。
研究贡献：本研究构建了一种结合大规模语言模型、分块文本处理及多阶段质量检验的全新文本数据提取框架，为历史生活叙事的定量分析提供了方法论创新，并为理解主观幸福感及其社会经济决定因素提供了实证支持。
What does it take to live a meaningful life? We exploit a unique corpus of over 1,400 life narratives of older Americans collected by a team of writers during the 1930s. We combine detailed human readings with large language models (LLMs) to extract systematic information on critical junctures, sources of meaning, and overall life satisfaction. Under specific conditions, LLMs can provide responses to complex questions that are indistinguishable from those of human readers, effectively passing a version of the Turing Test. We find that sources of life meaning are more varied than previous research suggested, underlining the importance of work and community contributions in addition to family and close relationships (emphasized by earlier work). The narratives also highlight gendered disparities, with women disproportionately citing adverse family events, such as the loss of a parent, underscoring their role as keepers of the kin. Our research expands our understanding of human flourishing during a transformative period in American history and establishes a robust and scalable framework for exploring subjective well-being across diverse historical and cultural contexts.
论文原文：David Lagakos,Stelios Michalopoulos,Hans-Joachim Voth,，American Life Histories，DOI---- 10.3386/w33373
地缘经济权力的政治经济学(The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power)
研究问题：本研究探讨了各国如何在不同的政治经济体制下利用经济、金融及贸易关系，通过内外政策手段来实施地缘经济目标，并考察了政府如何克服国内约束以向国内企业和外国目标传递激励或惩罚。
主要结论：研究发现，不同政治体制在激励与惩罚机制、信誉建立及直接控制能力上存在显著差异，这些差异决定了政府在推动地缘经济策略中的操作边界与效果。
研究贡献：该研究构建了一个涵盖政府激励与约束机制的理论框架，整合政治经济因素与国际联盟作用，为理解和分析国家地缘经济权力的形成与运用提供了新的学术视角和政策启示。
Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims. This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political economy forces in determining a government's ability to project geoeconomic power abroad. We also discuss the role that persuading or coercing foreign governments plays in projecting geoeconomic power around the world.
论文原文：Christopher Clayton,Matteo Maggiori,Jesse Schreger,，The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power，DOI---- 10.3386/w33353
