制裁对俄罗斯的长期后果(Long-Run Consequences of Sanctions on Russia)
研究问题：该研究探讨了在西方制裁对俄背景下，资本存量调整如何影响长期消费、国民总支出以及分布性经济效应的问题。
主要结论：研究发现，允许资本调整会显著放大制裁的长期冲击效应，使得俄罗斯和东欧的长期消费分别下降约8.5%和2%，同时对工资与租金分配产生不均衡影响。
研究贡献：该论文通过构建和应用新的平衡增长路径框架，定量揭示了资本调整在国际贸易制裁长远效应中的关键作用，为相关领域的理论发展和政策分析提供了重要的实证依据。
This paper examines the long-run economic consequences of Western sanctions on Russia. Using a new framework for balanced growth path analysis, we find that the long-run declines in consumption are significantly larger when capital stocks are allowed to adjust --- 1.4 times larger for Russia and 2.2 times larger for Eastern Europe. This is contrary to the common intuition that long-run effects should be milder due to greater adjustment opportunities. In our model, Russian long-run consumption falls by 8.5%, Eastern European consumption by 2%, and Western countries' consumption by 0.3% in response to sanctions. The model also reveals important distributional effects： as capital adjusts, Russian real wages fall more than rental prices in the long run. These findings show that accounting for capital adjustment is quantitatively important when analyzing trade sanctions.
论文原文：David Baqaee,Hannes Malmberg,，Long-Run Consequences of Sanctions on Russia，DOI---- 10.3386/w33506
主导货币假说的检验：来自一个既非美元又非欧元国家的证据(A Test of Dominant Currency Hypothesis: Evidence From a Non-USD-non-Euro Country)
研究问题：本研究探讨了在不同计价策略（生产国币、本国币和车辆币）下，汇率变动如何通过出口价格传递机制影响交易价格，并检验了主导货币假说在非美元非欧元国家中的适用性。
主要结论：实证结果显示，日本出口中以本国币计价的产品价格较为僵化，而以目的国币或车辆币（特别是非美元）计价的产品对汇率变动具有显著且长期逐步增强的传递效应，且不同计价策略下传递效应存在明显差异。
研究贡献：本研究利用海关微观交易数据构建了以计价币种为基础的汇率序列和传递效应测度，不仅丰富了外汇传递机制的理论检验工具，也为理解主导货币选择与出口定价策略的关联提供了新的实证证据。
We examine the determinants and the dynamics of the exchange rate pass-through of the Japanese exporters, utilizing the official Customs declaration data. We first estimated the invoicing currency exchange rate pass-through and found that export prices invoiced in producer currency are the most rigid. Among local currency or vehicle currency use, US dollar invoicing is relatively more rigid than non-US dollar invoicing. The destination exchange rate pass-through estimates for local currency invoicing are between 35 and 40 percent, whereas those for Japanese yen or US dollar invoicing are close to complete. In addition, we find these discrepancies are even more accentuated in the longer run by analyzing the dynamics of the exchange rate pass-through.
论文原文：Yushi Yoshida,Takatoshi Ito,Junko Shimizu,Kiyotaka Sato,Taiyo Yoshimi,Uraku Yoshimoto,，A Test of Dominant Currency Hypothesis： Evidence From a Non-USD-non-Euro Country，DOI---- 10.3386/w33454
地点与人：全球化背景下劳动力市场调整的来龙去脉(Places versus People： The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization)
研究问题：本研究探讨了中国加入WTO后增强的进口竞争如何影响美国地区劳动市场和制造业工人的调整路径及其背后的动态机制。
主要结论：研究表明，受贸易冲击的地区制造业就业持续下滑主要源于年轻、本土且受教育程度较低劳动力流入不足，而传统的地理迁移、跨部门重分配和非就业途径的作用则较为次要；与此同时，新进入劳动力市场的主体——主要为女性、高学历及移民——在低薪服务业的扩展中推动了整体就业规模的恢复，但就业质量却呈现下降趋势。
研究贡献：本研究以统一的实证框架系统区分和量化了贸易冲击下地区（“地点”）与个体（“人”）层面的调整渠道，挑战了传统理论中地理和部门流动为主的预期，进而为构建包含新生代及移民因素的劳动市场调整模型提供了实证支持和政策启示。
This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational： affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions.
论文原文：David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Maggie R. Jones, Bradley Setzler, Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization，DOI---- 10.3386/w33424
运输刚性与供应链中断(Rigidities in Transportation and Supply Chain Disruptions)
研究问题：本研究探讨了运输部门中（尤其是海运及港口）固有的刚性如何在面对宏观经济冲击时引发供应链中断，并波及国际贸易和价格水平。
主要结论：研究发现，由于运输需求的剧烈波动和船舶及港口供给的高度不弹性，海运价格和港口拥堵的剧烈波动显著影响了贸易成本和通胀水平。
研究贡献：本研究构建了一个直观的理论框架，结合实证数据量化了运输刚性对供应链中断及宏观经济后果的影响，为基础设施政策和运输管理提供了新的理论和实证依据。
In this paper we provide a simple and intuitive story for supply chain disruptions driven by the rigidities in the transportation sector. Focusing on maritime shipping, we argue that the frequent macroeconomic shocks that shape demand for transportation, meet a highly inelastic supply curve for transportation services. The steepness is driven by equilibrium bottlenecks in ships (transportation agents) and ports (transportation infrastructure). This leads to highly volatile shipping prices and port congestion, affecting importers and exporters worldwide. We discuss how both global trade and inflation react to these costs, so that disruptions pass through to the entire economy.
论文原文：Giulia Brancaccio,Myrto Kalouptsidi,Theodore Papageorgiou,，Rigidities in Transportation and Supply Chain Disruptions，DOI---- 10.3386/w33452
破除许可证制度：通往印度1991年贸易改革的漫漫长路(Dismantling the License Raj： The Long Road to India’s 1991 Trade Reforms)
研究问题：本研究探讨了印度在长期外汇紧缩和许可制度制约下，如何通过技术官僚主导的政策调整实现贸易自由化以应对平衡支付危机的问题。
主要结论：研究发现，通过汇率调整、取消出口补贴和放宽进出口管制的综合政策，印度成功缓解了外汇短缺问题，显著提振了出口和经济增长。
研究贡献：该研究为理解政治经济机制中技术官僚作用与既得利益抗衡关系提供了新的理论视角，并为其他发展中国家的经济自由化改革提供了实践启示。
In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard reasons for policy change—pressure from domestic producer interests, shifts in political power, or conditionality by international financial institutions—fail to explain why the shift in trade policy took place. Instead, reform-minded technocrats persuaded political leaders to reject what had been a standard response to balance of payments pressure (import repression to avoid a devaluation) and embrace a new approach (exchange rate adjustment and a reduction of import restrictions). This paper explores the economic and political context behind the country’s dramatic policy transformation. India’s experience highlights the crucial link between exchange rate policy and trade policy.
论文原文：Douglas A. Irwin, Dismantling the License Raj： The Long Road to India’s 1991 Trade Reforms，DOI---- 10.3386/w33420
公共就业重新分配作为以地点为基础政策的潜力(The Potential of Public Employment Reallocation as a Place-Based Policy)
研究问题：本研究探讨了公共就业重新配置作为地方型政策工具对区域私营就业、失业率和人口增长等经济指标的影响及其机制。
主要结论：研究表明，通过资本迁移和公共部门去中心化政策可以在接收区域刺激就业、GDP和人口增长，但同时伴随着高昂且难以预测的成本、环境风险以及长期贸易部门效应的不确定性，而这些效应主要取决于接收区域的初始经济条件。
研究贡献：本研究整合并系统评估了资本重定位与公共部门去中心化的理论与实证文献，揭示了公共就业重新配置在平衡区域发展中的潜在作用，为政策制定和未来相关研究提供了实证依据和理论参考。
Increasing within-country disparities have led policymakers to deploy public employment reallocation as a place-based policy tool to support struggling regions. This paper surveys the economics literature on capital relocations, purpose-built capitals, and public agency decentralization programs, synthesizing their effects on population, employment, and GDP. I find that while relocating capital cities can spur employment, GDP, and population growth in receiving regions, they entail highly unpredictable costs (3–12% of GDP) and uncertain environmental outcomes. Decentralization programs yield positive short-run public-to-private employment multipliers (around 0.7) stemming from the non-traded sector, but the long-term effect on the traded sector remains ambiguous. Local initial conditions seem to matter more than ex-post spillovers in determining multiplier size. Although more evidence is needed, sending regions do not seem to be extensively harmed when public jobs leave. Given the large share of government payroll in national expenditures, reallocating public employment may hold considerable potential for regional development in the future.
论文原文：Dimitria Freitas,，The Potential of Public Employment Reallocation as a Place-Based Policy，DOI---- 10.3386/w33432
贸易政策、汇率与20世纪90年代全球化浪潮(Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and the Globalization Surge of the 1990s)
研究问题：本文探讨了在外汇储备紧张和固定汇率压力下，为什么及如何在1980至1990年代发展中国家（包括中国在内）选择通过大幅汇率贬值及贸易政策改革来放松进口管制，实现贸易自由化和融入全球经济的路径问题。
主要结论：研究表明，取消行政性外汇分配和进口限制、转向市场化汇率机制及大规模贬值是推动发展中国家贸易自由化、增强出口竞争力并促进全球经济一体化的关键举措。
研究贡献：本文揭示了外汇管理制度与贸易政策改革间的内在因果关系，提供了关于发展中国家在外部经济压力下如何实现经济转型和融入全球经济的重要经验和政策启示。
The decision by developing countries to open up their economies to foreign trade and investment in the 1980s and 1990s was a momentous event in world history. How and why did this trade policy revolution take place? Most accounts of trade politics stress domestic interest groups or trade agreements as driving policy changes, but these explanations fail in this period. This paper notes that many import restrictions were imposed for balance of payments purposes, as a way of avoiding a devaluation and protecting foreign exchange reserves from depletion under fixed exchange rates. A shortage of foreign exchange in the mid-1980s led countries, under the guidance of economists, to adopt more flexible exchange rate arrangements that boosted export earnings and made import controls unnecessary for payments balance. Like during the Great Depression, the exchange rate regime was a key factor behind a country’s trade policy.
论文原文：Douglas A. Irwin,，Trade Policy, Exchange Rates, and the Globalization Surge of the 1990s，DOI---- 10.3386/w33426
美国地方性政策供应链(The U.S. Place-Based Policy Supply Chain)
研究问题：本研究探讨了美国地方性政策供给链的形成与演变，及其在联邦、州和地方多级政府以及中介组织协调下，如何影响区域经济发展和交通基础设施等公共领域的实施效应。
主要结论：研究表明，尽管联邦层面的地方性政策存在资金波动和垂直分工问题，但地方中介组织的协同作用和跨部门协调能在一定程度上推动区域经济和基础设施发展的实现，而各地区在行政和组织能力上的差异则显著影响实际政策成效。
研究贡献：本研究构建了一个综合的地方性政策供给链分析框架，揭示了联邦—州—地方之间互动以及地方中介机构在政策实施中的关键作用，为优化政府间协调与提升地方执行能力提供了新的理论视角和实证依据。
Place-based policy in the United States comprises a wide range of government programs that are spread across federal, state, and local agencies and that rely on public, private, and nonprofit organizations for policy design and implementation. We document how loosely connected vertical policy supply chains distribute resources from federal and state governments to recipients at the local level. The apparatus is the product of 150 years of policy innovation, both from the top down, with the federal government periodically launching major initiatives whose place-based impacts tend to be long-lived (even if the specific policies are not), and from the bottom up, with state and local actors engineering their own policy solutions, many of which have endured and now constitute modern policy practice. That practice includes not just tax incentives for business investment, the subject of most economic research on place-based policy, but support for community redevelopment, workforce development, small business promotion, technological innovation, and regional planning and strategy. Intermediary organizations that connect government agencies to local recipients are central to resource delivery. Because they tend to be created, funded, and (or) run by non-state actors, there appears to be wide geographic variation in organizational capacity for place-based policy. Understanding the causes and consequences of that variation is needed for a full accounting of how place-based policy works in the U.S.
论文原文：Gordon H. Hanson,Dani Rodrik,Rohan Sandhu,，The U.S. Place-Based Policy Supply Chain，DOI---- 10.3386/w33511
全球地方GDP估计(Local GDP Estimates Around the World)
研究问题：本研究探讨如何利用高分辨率空间数据和随机森林模型生成全球细网格局部GDP估计，以更准确地衡量经济震荡、区域差异和基础设施改善的影响。
主要结论：实证结果表明，该模型在预测各地区GDP水平（R²超过0.92）和年度增长率（R²达0.62及以上）方面均表现出较高精度，成功捕捉了包括新冠疫情在内的经济冲击，并揭示了人口与GDP之间存在凸型关系。
研究贡献：本文贡献在于开发并公开了一个可年更新的全球细网格局部GDP数据集，其多源数据整合和跨区域推广的预测方法为进一步研究区域经济发展、运输基础设施与环境变迁提供了重要实证工具。
We use high-resolution spatial data to build a novel global annual gridded GDP dataset at 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° resolutions from 2012 onward. Our random forest model trained on local and national GDP achieves an R² above 0.92 for GDP levels and above 0.62 for annual changes in regions left out of the training sample. By incorporating diverse indicators beyond population and nighttime lights, our estimates offer more precise subnational GDP measurements for analyzing economic shocks, local policies, and regional disparities. We evaluate the precision of our estimates with a sample case of COVID-19’s impact on local GDP in China.
论文原文：Esteban Rossi-Hansberg,Jialing Zhang,，Local GDP Estimates Around the World，DOI---- 10.3386/w33458
企业贸易曝露、劳动力市场竞争与工人承担的贸易冲击(Firm Trade Exposure, Labor Market Competition, and the Worker Incidence of Trade Shocks)
研究问题：本文研究中国加入WTO后，通过进口竞争、出口竞争、扩大的进口机会及出口通道等多个渠道如何引发美国企业就业变化，并进而传导对劳动者收入、福利和失业风险的影响，探讨不同企业类型和劳动力组别之间的再分配机制。
主要结论：研究发现，虽然制造业企业总体上遭受显著的净就业损失，但大型跨国企业（尤其是同时进行相关方进出口的企业）在制造业与非制造业间产生了就业损失和创造的交织效应，而这种行业内部和群体间的冲击最终导致低至中收入工人承受不成比例的收入损失和较高失业风险。
研究贡献：本研究通过构造一个灵活的匹配分配模型，结合高频的企业和劳动者数据，实证揭示了中国加入WTO对美国劳动力市场的多维度冲击及其传导机制，为评估全球化冲击下的就业再分配和收入不平等提供了新的理论方法和实证证据。
This paper examines how the composition of firm exposure and competition among imperfectly substitutable workers mediate the earnings, welfare, and unemployment incidence of changes in the international trade environment. We merge LEHD job match records with firm-level import and export records from the LFTTD and use them to estimate a large-scale assignment model of the entire U.S. labor market. The model flexibly accommodates frictions from switching regions, industries, trade engagement status, and even particular employers. We construct firm-level estimates of the employment impact of China's WTO entry using exogenous tariff gap variation via four different channels, import and export competition and import and export access, and combine them with the model to evaluate the shock's worker-level incidence.Our results show that the firm composition of shock exposure does matter for medium-run worker-level earnings incidence, with workers at the highly exposed multinational manufacturing firms experiencing the largest shock-induced earnings losses. However, labor market competition causes the shock's impact to spread to seemingly unaffected sectors and trickle down the skill ladder, so that entry-level non-traded service workers and initially unemployed job-seekers account for a large share of earnings losses and particularly unemployment increases.
论文原文：Jeronimo Carballo,Richard K. Mansfield,，Firm Trade Exposure, Labor Market Competition, and the Worker Incidence of Trade Shocks，DOI---- 10.3386/w33481
最优空间政策(Optimal Spatial Policies)
研究问题：本文探讨了如何在空间经济均衡框架下设计最优的地方性政策，具体关注如何通过劳动力再分配、区域再分配及交通基础设施投资来纠正市场失灵和改善区域经济差距问题。
主要结论：研究表明，通过利用外部性、公共产品供给以及跨区域传导效应的理论分析，可以推导出一系列针对劳动力转移、收入再分配和交通网络投资的最优税补政策，这些政策在理论和数值实验上均显示能够实现经济福利的提升和资源配置的改善。
研究贡献：该研究在扩展传统空间经济理论的同时，构建了一个融合区域再分配与交通网络投资的综合最优化模型，并提供了明确的政策规则和量化实施方案，为区域发展政策和基础设施投资的制定提供了重要的理论指导和实证基础。
We summarize recent methods to study optimal spatial policies. We center the discussion on policies that implement the optimal distribution of population in the presence of spatial spillovers, spatial transfers to optimally tackle redistribution between rich and poor regions, and optimal transportation investments.
论文原文：Pablo D. Fajgelbaum,Cecile Gaubert,，Optimal Spatial Policies，DOI---- 10.3386/w33493
低收入和中等收入国家的空间经济学(Spatial Economics for Low- and Middle-Income Countries)
研究问题：本研究探讨低收入和中等收入国家中，运输基础设施及相关政策如何通过影响迁移成本、通勤成本和市场摩擦，进而改变城市内部及区域间劳动力与居民的空间配置与福利分布。
主要结论：研究表明，在充分考虑空间溢出效应、规模效应和选择性迁移等因素后，改善运输基础设施和公共服务不仅能显著降低迁移与通勤成本，还能在整体上提升区域市场接入、工资水平和住房条件，其综合效应远高于传统随机对照试验所揭示的局部影响。
研究贡献：本研究构建并实证检验了一种融合空间经济和发展经济理论的均衡模型，通过结合微观数据、随机实验和结构化方法，为低收入国家城市政策设计及运输基础设施投资的效应评估提供了新的理论框架和实证工具。
Research at the intersection of development and spatial economics is increasingly important to address pressing issues in rapidly-urbanizing cities in low- and middle- income countries. This handbook chapter presents the canonical spatial model and then explores it through the lens of development economics, pointing out the "on-the-ground" facts of missing markets, frictions, and context-specific parameters that are often absent in applications of the model. We then discuss what the existing literature and the spatial model tell us about the optimal allocation of labor across space. We close by highlighting exciting possibilities for future work that integrates the spatial model with the reality of low- and middle-income countries.
论文原文：Gharad T. Bryan,Kyra Frye,Melanie Morten,，Spatial Economics for Low- and Middle-Income Countries，DOI---- 10.3386/w33453
空间动态(Spatial Dynamics)
研究问题：本文探讨如何构建和求解含有内生创新、前瞻性迁移、资本积累以及贸易与技术扩散等动态机制的多地点经济模型，以定量分析区域经济活动、运输基础设施投资及其他政策冲击对整体经济增长和空间分布的影响。
主要结论：研究发现，动态空间模型能够有效捕捉经济活动的时空演化特征，其内生的迁移摩擦、创新激励和资本积累机制在应对气候变化、贸易冲击和基础设施投资时，会对区域经济福利、增长率和就业分布产生显著的长期与短期效应。
研究贡献：本研究贡献在于提出了一套可处理大规模异质地点和丰富动力学机制的动态空间计量框架及动态帽方法，为评估运输基础设施发展及其他区域政策提供了理论创新和实证工具。
We examine the recent literature that studies the spatial distribution of economic activity across both space and time. We discuss the methodological advances enabling the incorporation of dynamic forces of economic activity—such as endogenous innovation, forward-looking location choices, capital and asset accumulation, idea diffusion, and stochastic fundamentals—into frameworks with many heterogeneous locations and a rich economic geography. These frameworks remain tractable for quantitative evaluations. We also discuss the wide range of empirical questions explored in recent work through the lens of these frameworks, including the global and local economic impacts of climate change, the dynamic effects of trade and migration policy, labor market adjustments to import competition, the spatial consequences of structural change, the dynamic effects of place-based policies, and the long-run spatial effects of large-scale infrastructure projects.
论文原文：Klaus Desmet,Fernando Parro,，Spatial Dynamics，DOI---- 10.3386/w33443
定量区域经济学(Quantitative Regional Economics)
研究问题：本研究探讨如何在考虑运输成本、贸易摩擦、市场接入性以及聚集与拥挤外部性等因素下，通过构建定量经济地理模型来解释和预测区域经济活动分布及其均衡问题。
主要结论：研究发现，区域市场接入性、劳动供需弹性和聚集效应是决定地区经济表现和人员分布的关键因素，且运输成本的降低可以推动区域经济一体化、提高总体福利，同时在一定参数条件下均衡解具有唯一性或多重性特征。
研究贡献：本研究将先前的区域经济模型和核心—边缘理论加以统一，提出了一个灵活且具有实证应用性的定量经济地理工作框架，为交通基础设施相关政策的效果评估和区域经济规划提供了理论依据和计量工具。
This handbook chapter presents the major advances made in the field of economic geography over the past decade. It starts by documenting a number of motivating empirical facts. It then shows how a quantitative regional model that combines the insights from two seminal models from an earlier generation can explain these facts. It then presents a unified quantitative framework that incorporates this and many other economic geography models. This unified framework is sufficiently tractable to characterize its equilibrium properties while flexible enough to be combined with detailed spatial economic data to estimate the model parameters, conduct counterfactuals, and perform welfare analysis. The chapter concludes by discussing many extensions of the framework, some of which have already been explored and others which have not.
论文原文：Treb Allen,Costas Arkolakis,，Quantitative Regional Economics，DOI---- 10.3386/w33436
正常时期与通胀激增期间的微观与宏观成本价格动态(Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges)
研究问题：本研究探讨在正常时期与通胀激增期间，企业如何依据成本、价格缺口及竞争环境来制定状态依赖性定价决策，以及这种微观定价行为如何传导至宏观通胀动态。
主要结论：实证结果表明，在低通胀环境中企业价格调整呈现近似线性关系，而在大规模成本冲击下，价格缺口扩大促使调整频率显著上升，从而导致通胀响应呈现非线性特征，验证了状态依赖性定价模型在解释通胀激增中的有效性。
研究贡献：该研究通过构建基于高频企业微观数据的价格缺口指标，并结合菜单成本模型与Calvo模型的比较，不仅丰富了新凯恩斯定价理论，也为理解通胀动态和制定货币政策提供了坚实的理论与实证支持。
We study cost-price dynamics in normal times and during inflation surges. Using microdata on firms’ prices and production costs we construct an empirical measure of price gaps—the deviation between a firm’s listed and optimal price. We then examine the mapping between gaps and price changes in the cross-section of firms and derive implications for inflation dynamics in the time-series. In the microdata, pricing policies display state-dependence： firms are more likely to adjust prices as their price gap widens, a mechanism that becomes quantitatively significant when large aggregate cost shocks occur. In normal times, adjustment probabilities are approximately constant and the microdata conform with the predictions of time-dependent models (e.g., Calvo 1983). Conditional on a path of aggregate cost shocks extracted from the data, we show that a generalized state-dependent pricing model accounts well for the pre-pandemic era’s low and stable inflation and the nonlinear surge observed during the pandemic.
论文原文：Luca Gagliardone,Mark Gertler,Simone Lenzu,Joris Tielens,，Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges，DOI---- 10.3386/w33478
金融掠夺与对居民资本外流的管制(Financial Looting and Controls on Resident Outflows)
研究问题：本研究探讨在国内制度和监管不完善的背景下，预防性资本外流管制是否能抑制“掠夺性”市场投机行为，降低资产价格波动及经济不稳定性。
主要结论：实证分析表明，严格的居民资本外流管制显著减弱了资产泡沫期间由散户投机带来的资本外逃和资产市场剧烈波动，同时降低了金融掠夺行为的发生。
研究贡献：该研究在理论上内生化了“掠夺者”进入市场的机制，并利用跨国面板数据验证了预防性资本外流管制在缓解市场波动和改善金融稳定方面的有效性，丰富了资本控制和金融市场行为的文献。
This paper develops a theory of preemptive controls on capital outflows by residents as a second-best tool to mitigate boom-bust cycles in domestic asset markets and prevent wealth transfers from uninformed traders to pump-and-dump speculators, or financial “looters,” as in Akerlof and Romer (1993). The model implies that when domestic financial regulation is imperfectly designed or enforced, controls on residents' outflows reduce retail investor manipulation (which we call looting), stabilize asset prices, and diminish capital flight. The paper also provides compelling evidence that supports the main implications of the model when applied to housing markets, which is particularly relevant to institutions in developing countries. We find that deposit outflows to haven countries increase before busts in house prices, and countries with stricter controls on resident outflows experience significantly more contained deposit outflows to such destinations. The empirical analysis reveals a similar pattern for new incorporations in haven countries based on data from the Panama Papers.
论文原文：Bo Li,Alessandro Rebucci,Hui Tong,，Financial Looting and Controls on Resident Outflows，DOI---- 10.3386/w33406
世界金融周期的新古典模型(A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle)
研究问题：本研究探讨全球金融周期中，发达经济体（北方）与新兴市场（南方）之间如何通过风险定价和信贷传导机制影响各自债券利差波动的问题。
主要结论：研究发现，在全球金融周期阶段，北方的长期风险和波动性冲击通过共同贷方效应对南方利差产生了主导影响，而在其他阶段南方本地经济基本面冲击则是利差波动的主要驱动因素。
研究贡献：本文构建了一个新古典国际商业周期模型，成功整合并解释了北方与南方资产价格的共动机制，弥补了现有文献在全球与地方冲击交互作用下主权与企业债券风险定价方面的理论空白。
Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an advanced country, the North, and many emerging market economies, the South. Northern households invest in domestic stocks, domestic defaultable bonds, and international sovereign debt. Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern spreads’ fluctuations. Over the whole 1994-2024 period, however, Northern shocks account for less than 20% of these fluctuations.
论文原文：Yan Bai,Patrick J. Kehoe,Pierlauro Lopez,Fabrizio Perri,，A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle，DOI---- 10.3386/w33441
金融发展的长与短(The Long and Short of Financial Development)
研究问题：本文探讨了在生产者资本有限及资产质押性受限的背景下，不同期限投资的金融与信贷发展如何影响生产者的融资决策、产出结构及整体经济福利，同时引出生产者与消费者间在金融发展过程中的利益冲突问题。
主要结论：研究表明，提高资产质押性一方面可增强融资可得性，促进高回报长期项目的发展，但在低资本约束条件下，过高的长期资产质押性会降低生产者融资垄断收益，进而抑制长期生产与总体福利，而在较高水平的金融发展下，这种利益冲突趋于消退，经济增长效果得以提升。
研究贡献：本文构建了一个涵盖不同资产期限和质押性差异的通用均衡模型，细致阐释了金融与信贷发展在不同经济发展阶段下对投资结构、收益分配以及政策选择的影响，为理解和解决发展中国家金融改革及结构性增长困境提供了理论依据和政策启示。
By improving the pledgeability of returns to financiers, financial development enhances a producer’s ability to raise capital to fund long term complex investments. Consequently, it should increase output and welfare. However, a general equilibrium analysis suggests this is not always so. We consider an economy where producers and consuming/financing households are distinct agents, where producers lack sufficient capital, and where households care about both pledgeable returns and liquidity. In this economy, the greater pledgeability of long-term project earnings can reduce long term production and overall welfare, even though it makes financing more accessible. Our results have implications for why economies face impediments to financial development and overall growth, especially when producer capital is scarce.
论文原文：Douglas W. Diamond,Yunzhi Hu,Raghuram Rajan,，The Long and Short of Financial Development，DOI---- 10.3386/w33416
动态计分：为何、何时及如何实施的进展报告(Dynamic Scoring： A Progress Report on Why, When, and How)
研究问题：本研究探讨了如何在预算评估中纳入政策对劳动供给、资本积累、生产率等经济变量的动态反馈效应，以及何时和如何应用动态计分方法以改善预算估计的准确性。
主要结论：研究表明，尽管动态计分方法能更全面地反映政策的经济效应，其实施仍面临时间、资源、模型复杂性和不确定性等挑战，但在特定重大政策领域（如移民、研发和基础设施投资）中应用可显著改善预算估计。
研究贡献：本文通过构建分析框架与案例研究，系统梳理了动态计分的经济及制度问题，为政策制定者和预算评估机构提供了理论指导和实证依据，推动了预算估计方法的创新与改进。
By design, official budget estimates for legislative proposals generally exclude the proposals’ likely effects on levels of labor, capital, productivity, and other economic outcomes, as well as any feedback effects from changes in those outcomes to the federal budget. Policymakers would benefit from knowing the expected sizes of those economic effects, and advances in research and in the estimating agencies’ tools and experience have made providing estimates of those effects more feasible. If Congress requested that those effects be included more often in budget estimates—so-called “dynamic scoring” of legislation—the advantages and disadvantages of doing so would vary across policy areas. For some areas, the budgetary impacts of the currently excluded effects have been estimated to be significantly different from the impacts of the included effects. But producing dynamic estimates would be substantially more time-consuming than producing conventional estimates, and in some areas, the research base needed to inform modeling of the relevant economic effects is insufficient for credible estimation.
论文原文：Douglas W. Elmendorf,R. Glenn Hubbard,Heidi L. Williams,，Dynamic Scoring： A Progress Report on Why, When, and How，DOI---- 10.3386/w33425
调和宏观经济学与金融学：美国企业部门（1929年至今）(Reconciling Macroeconomics and Finance for the U.S. Corporate Sector： 1929 to Present)
研究问题：本文探讨了如何在美国企业部门中同时解释股票市场中企业市值的高波动性与宏观经济中资本存量及投资行为的相对平稳之间的矛盾。
主要结论：研究表明，企业市值的大幅波动主要是由对长期自由现金流预期的变化所驱动，而预期回报率仅呈现温和波动，从而使得企业投资和资本存量保持稳定。
研究贡献：本研究通过整合宏观经济账目数据，创新性地融合金融资产定价模型与随机增长宏观模型，为解释企业估值与实体经济变量之间的动态关系提供了统一且丰富的理论与实证框架。
We examine how to quantitatively reconcile the high volatility of market valuations of U.S. corporations with the relative stability of macroeconomic quantities since 1929. Macroeconomic and financial variables are measured in a consistent fashion using the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMA) of the United States. We first use a finance- style valuation model that builds on Campbell and Shiller (1987) to interpret fluctuations in the market value of U.S. corporations from 1929 to 2023, using these IMA data. We find that fluctuations in expected cash flows to firm owners have been the dominant driver of those fluctuations in value; fluctuations in expected rates of return have played a smaller role. We then develop a stochastic growth model, extended to incorporate factorless income, which we use to decompose corporate cash flows and associated valuations into income and value due to physical capital and factorless income. Finally, we ask whether expected returns to investing in capital in our macroeconomic model are consistent with the series for expected returns estimated from our finance-style valuation model. We find that they are. In this sense, we reconcile volatile market valuations and stable capital output ratios.
论文原文：Andrew Atkeson,Jonathan Heathcote,Fabrizio Perri,，Reconciling Macroeconomics and Finance for the U.S. Corporate Sector： 1929 to Present，DOI---- 10.3386/w33459
人工智能与劳动力市场(Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market)
研究问题：本研究探讨人工智能在不同任务层面上的应用如何通过直接替代与间接再分配机制影响企业生产率与劳动力需求分布，揭示这一过程在不同职业和薪酬水平中的异质性效应。
主要结论：研究发现，虽然人工智能显著引发了任务层面的劳动替代效应，尤其在高薪职业中导致就业份额下降，但通过任务再分配和企业生产率提升的正向效应，这种负面影响在整体上得到了部分抵消，从而使得企业总体劳动需求变化较为温和。
研究贡献：该研究通过构建理论模型并利用大数据与自然语言处理技术精细量化人工智能暴露度，首次实现了对人工智能直接替代效应和间接再分配效应在劳动力市场中不同路径和行业间影响的区分，为未来技术变革对劳动市场的深入研究提供了新的实证方法和理论视角。
We leverage recent advances in NLP to construct measures of workers' task exposure to AI and machine learning technologies over the 2010 to 2023 period that vary across firms and time. Using a theoretical framework that allows for a labor-saving technology to affect worker productivity both directly and indirectly, we show that the impact on wage earnings and employment can be summarized by two statistics. First, labor demand decreases in the average exposure of workers' tasks to AI technologies; second, holding the average exposure constant, labor demand increases in the dispersion of task exposures to AI, as workers shift effort to tasks that are not displaced by AI. Exploiting exogenous variation in our measures based on pre-existing hiring practices across firms, we find empirical support for these predictions, together with a lower demand for skills affected by AI. Overall, we find muted effects of AI on employment due to offsetting effects： highly-exposed occupations experience relatively lower demand compared to less exposed occupations, but the resulting increase in firm productivity increases overall employment across all occupations.
论文原文：Menaka Hampole,Dimitris Papanikolaou,Lawrence D.W. Schmidt,Bryan Seegmiller,，Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market，DOI---- 10.3386/w33509
战争的治疗性后果：第二次世界大战与20世纪生物医学的扩展(The Therapeutic Consequences of the War： World War II and the 20th-Century Expansion of Biomedicine)
研究问题：本研究探讨了二战期间美国医疗研究委员会（CMR）在应用导向型生物医学研发中如何介入并给后续生物医学创新体系带来深远影响的问题。
主要结论：研究显示，CMR的投资不仅促使战后科学文献数量持续增长、推动了药物创新的黄金时代，还加速了新医知识在临床实践中的扩散，使相关领域的研发活动和专利科学性显著提升。
研究贡献：本研究通过系统、大规模的实证分析，突破了传统的线性创新模型，为政府如何通过有针对性的研究资助激发科技、生产与科学紧密融合提供了实证支持，并为创新政策制定提供了新的理论视角和实践经验。
During World War II, the U.S. Committee on Medical Research (CMR) undertook an integrated, cross-sectoral effort to develop medical science and technology for war, representing the U.S. government's first substantial investment in medical research. Using data on all CMR research contracts, we show that although it had mixed results during the war, it left a large imprint on the postwar U.S. biomedical innovation system. Research areas it supported experienced rapid growth in postwar science, especially in new subjects. It also stimulated the U.S. pharmaceutical industry's adoption of modern science-based drug discovery, fueled new postwar drug development, influenced medical practice, and shaped extramural research funding at the National Institutes of Health. Contemporary accounts of individual CMR programs point to specific ways these investments enabled old and new subjects to grow. The evidence documents the long-run effects coordinated, application-oriented biomedical research can have on science and technology and challenges the influential 'linear model' paradigm in research policy.
论文原文：Daniel P. Gross,Bhaven N. Sampat,，The Therapeutic Consequences of the War： World War II and the 20th-Century Expansion of Biomedicine，DOI---- 10.3386/w33457
探索未知：石油制裁与暗航运的（非）预期后果(Charting the Uncharted： The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping)
研究问题：本研究探讨了西方油品制裁下受制裁国家如何利用“暗航”行为（即隐蔽化船舶活动）运输原油，以及这种行为对全球油市及宏观经济的影响。
主要结论：研究发现，2017至2023年间，暗航油运输约占全球海运原油出口的43%，其规模和时空分布受油品制裁、地缘政治及市场价格变动的显著影响，并通过降低油价及促进中国低价油进口对美国（作为净出口国）和欧盟（作为净进口国）产生了不同的经济效应。
研究贡献：本文贡献在于构建了一种基于AIS数据的多属性船舶聚类模型，不仅实现了对“暗船”行为的有效识别和量化，而且为政策制定者提供了评估和优化油品制裁措施、管控暗航活动的重要工具。
We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics.
论文原文：Jesús Fernández-Villaverde,Yiliang Li,Le Xu,Francesco Zanetti,，Charting the Uncharted： The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping，DOI---- 10.3386/w33486
人才向学术界配置的演变：日本工业化时期的机构建设与毕业生选择(The Evolution of Talent Allocation into Academia： Institution-Building and Graduates’ Choices during Japan’s Industrialization)
研究问题：本研究探讨了日本近代化期间，工程领域顶尖人才在学术界与产业间职业选择过程中，制度建设及非经济激励如何影响其职业取向的问题。
主要结论：研究发现，尽管产业部门的经济回报不断提高，但随着帝国大学制度的不断完善和非经济激励因素（如学术声望、独立性及自我治理）的增强，后期顶尖毕业生反而更倾向于选择学术职业。
研究贡献：该研究通过利用独特的历史数据和动态职业选择模型，首次量化了制度变革对非经济激励及人才流动的影响，为理解高端人才分布与教育制度优化提供了实证依据和政策启示。
Higher technical-education institutions play an important role in training industrial scientists and engineers and generating new technologies. How well they perform this role, however, depends on their ability to recruit and retain talented faculty who have alternative options in industry; moreover, such allocation of talent in academia vs. industry is conditioned by path-dependencies in the evolution of these sectors. We examine the evolution of academia-industry occupational choices and talent allocation across sectors by utilizing unique data on the census of university-educated engineers from the first 40 cohorts since the inception of higher technical education in Japan. We find that academia disproportionately attracted top talent despite an increasing pay gap with industry, which we link to the institution-building process that increased non-monetary attractiveness of academic jobs. To quantitatively examine the evolution of non-pecuniary preferences for academic careers on the supply side, we estimate a dynamic model of occupational choice and find that top graduates from later cohorts, especially those who already showed exceptional talent at early stages of education, were more likely than earlier graduates to value non-pecuniary benefits offered by academia.
论文原文：Takuya Hiraiwa,Serguey Braguinsky,Rajshree Agarwal,，The Evolution of Talent Allocation into Academia： Institution-Building and Graduates’ Choices during Japan’s Industrialization，DOI---- 10.3386/w33471
衡量居家办公(Measuring Work from Home)
研究问题：本研究探讨如何统一不同问卷设计、目标群体和远程工作概念以精确测量美国劳动者远程办公（WFH）的实际比例及其在各类人群中的差异。
主要结论：研究表明，经标准化校正后，不同数据源均显示WFH大约占20至30%的有薪工作日，且女性、育有幼儿以及高学历工作者的远程办公比例和期望均略高于其他群体。
研究贡献：该研究构建了一个跨数据源统一衡量WFH的方法学框架，有效减少了因问卷设计和样本选择引发的测量差异，为后续政策制定和远程工作研究提供了系统性实证依据。
Headline estimates for the extent of work from home (WFH) differ widely across U.S. surveys. The differences shrink greatly when we harmonize with respect to the WFH concept, target population, and question design. As of 2025, our preferred estimates say that WFH accounts for a quarter of paid workdays among Americans aged 20-64. The WFH rate is seven percentage points higher for workers with children under eight in the household and about two percentage points higher for women than men. Desired WFH rates exceed actual rates in every major demographic group – more so for women, workers with young children, and less educated workers.
论文原文：Shelby R. Buckman,Jose Maria Barrero,Nicholas Bloom,Steven J. Davis,，Measuring Work from Home，DOI---- 10.3386/w33508
制度、技术与繁荣(Institutions, Technology and Prosperity)
研究问题：论文探讨了制度安排与技术选择如何相互作用，进而决定经济繁荣及其分配格局，特别关注关键转折点时期制度差异对技术创新和经济发展的影响。
主要结论：研究发现，提取性制度通过扭曲资源配置和阻碍技术进步，不仅影响短期经济效率，而且在关键历史时期放大初始差异，导致经济发展路径和技术应用存在显著分化。
研究贡献：本文构建了将效用—技术可能性边界融入制度与技术选择分析的理论框架，为理解包括数字不平等与人工智能时代在内的经济发展和制度变迁提供了新的理论及实证视角。
This paper reviews the main motivations and arguments of my work on comparative development, colonialism and institutional change, which was often carried out jointly with James Robinson and Simon Johnson. I then provide a simple framework to organize these ideas and connect them with my research on innovation and technology. The framework is centered around a utility-technology possibilities frontier, which delineates the possible distributions of resources in a society both for given technology and working via different technological choices. It highlights how various types of institutions, market structures, norms and ideologies influence moves along the frontier and shifts of the frontier, and it provides a simple formalization of the social forces that lead to institutional persistence and those that can trigger institutional change. The framework also enables us to conceptualize how, during periods of disruption, existing—and sometimes quite small—differences can have amplified effects on prosperity and institutional trajectories. In this way, it suggests some parallels between different disruptive periods, including the onset of European colonialism, the spread (or lack thereof) of industrial technologies in the 19th century, and decisions related to the use, adoption and development of AI today.
论文原文：Daron Acemoglu,，Institutions, Technology and Prosperity，DOI---- 10.3386/w33442
北欧国家的收入平等：神话、事实与启示(Income Equality in The Nordic Countries： Myths, Facts, and Lessons)
研究问题：本文探讨北欧国家低收入不平等现象的根本原因，着重分析高度协调的工资谈判如何压缩小时工资分布，并比较税转机制、公共支出与人力资本分布等因素的相对作用。
主要结论：研究发现，北欧国家的收入平等主要得益于对小时工资的严重压缩，这一现象主要源于在行业内及跨行业高度协调的工资谈判制度，而税收转移和公共服务等其他因素的作用相对有限。
研究贡献：本文通过整合理论模型与丰富的微观数据实证分析，不仅揭示了工资协调机制在实现收入平等中的关键作用，还为劳动市场收入分配机制及其对生产率和增长影响的研究提供了新的实证证据和政策启示。
Policymakers, public commentators, and researchers often cite the Nordic countries as examples of a social and economic model that successfully combines low income inequality with prosperity and growth. This article aims to critically assess this claim by integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence to illustrate how the Nordic model functions and why these countries experience low inequality. Our analysis suggests that income equality in the Nordics is primarily driven by a significant compression of hourly wages, reducing the returns to labor market skills and education. This appears to be achieved through a wage bargaining system characterized by strong coordination both within and across industries. This finding contrasts with other commonly cited explanations for Nordic income equality, such as redistribution through the tax-transfer system, public spending on goods that complement employment, and public policies aimed at equalizing skills and human capital distribution. We consider the potential lessons for other economies that seek to reduce income equality. We conclude by discussing several underexplored or unresolved questions and issues.
论文原文：Magne Mogstad,Kjell G. Salvanes,Gaute Torsvik,，Income Equality in The Nordic Countries： Myths, Facts, and Lessons，DOI---- 10.3386/w33444
美国COVID-19超额死亡对社会保障支出的影响(The Effect of US COVID-19 Excess Mortality on Social Security Outlays)
研究问题：本研究旨在探讨COVID-19疫情期间美国因超额死亡而对社会保障（OASDI）未来支出产生的净影响，并分析不同种族和社会经济群体之间的差异。
主要结论：研究发现，尽管疫情提前减少了退休、残疾福利支出，从而对OASDI基金产生了约1560亿美元的净正面影响，但未来工薪税收入减少和增加的生存者福利同时部分抵消了这一效应，且不同族群之间存在显著的不平等现象。
研究贡献：本研究利用动态微观模拟模型结合详细的CDC数据，对疫情影响下的社会保障公共财政进行了全面量化评估，提供了新的实证依据和方法论创新，为政策制定和OASDI基金预测提供了重要参考。
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality among the US population, impacting the future outlays of the US Social Security Administration (SSA) Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program. This study aimed to estimate the net effects of pandemic-induced excess deaths on OASDI liabilities, utilizing dynamic microsimulation models, and examined how these effects vary across different socioeconomic and racial-ethnic groups. Data on excess deaths were obtained from the CDC and processed to account for seasonal variations and demographic disparities. The simulation incorporated demographic and health status variables to project OASDI retirement and disability benefits, and survivors’ benefits for spouses and children, for respondents with highest COVID mortality risk. The pandemic resulted in approximately 1.7 million excess deaths among individuals aged 25 and older between 2020 and 2023. These premature deaths reduced future retirement payments, which increased the Social Security fund by $294 billion. However, this gain was offset by reductions in future payroll tax flows ($58 billion) and increased payments to surviving spouses and children ($32 billion), resulting in a net impact of $205 billion. Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic decedents left behind more underage children per capita, yet payments to their surviving family members were lower compared to non-Hispanic White decedents, across all educational levels. Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has complex implications for the OASDI program. While there is an estimated net positive financial impact due to reduced future retirement benefits, this effect is mitigated by decreased payroll tax contributions and increased survivors’ benefits. The differential impact by race and ethnicity highlights existing inequalities and underscores the importance of considering demographic disparities in future projections of Social Security liabilities. These findings provide critical insights for informing SSA trust fund projections and policy decisions.
论文原文：Hanke Heun-Johnson,Darius Lakdawalla,Julian Reif,Bryan Tysinger,，The Effect of US COVID-19 Excess Mortality on Social Security Outlays，DOI---- 10.3386/w33465
长期比较静态分析(Long-Run Comparative Statics)
研究问题：本文探讨了在具有资本积累和产业间投入产出联系的动态分行业经济中，长期消费水平如何响应持续的生产率变动以及政策扭曲（如关税和加成）的影响。
主要结论：研究发现，即使在效率较高的经济中，由于资本使用成本的扭曲和资源再配置效应，当经济偏离Golden Rule最优状态时，生产率冲击、关税和加成的变化会一阶地显著影响长期消费，从而导致消费水平的显著下降。
研究贡献：本研究构建了一个将动态均衡路径等效表征为静态扭曲经济的理论框架，并提出基于支出份额、替代弹性及资本供给弹性的一阶长期比较静态分析方法，同时利用定量模型揭示了产业链结构和资本扭曲对全球长期消费的重要影响。
What are the long-run effects of permanent changes to the economy? We characterize long-run comparative statics for a broad class of models in terms of expenditure shares, substitution elasticities, and capital supply elasticities. Our key insight is that long-run analysis can be performed using an as-if static economy where capital is treated as an intermediate input subject to endogenous markups. These markups, which measure deviations from the Golden Rule of savings, equal the ratio of capital income to investment. This reframing yields a surprising result： long-run consumption responses follow second-best principles even in efficient economies. In particular, reallocations have first-order effects since the envelope theorem does not apply. Furthermore, sales alone do not summarize industries’ importance for long-run consumption. To show how these points matter in practice, we develop a quantitative model of the world economy to study how markups, tariffs, and productivities affect long-run consumption. The model features input-output linkages, imperfectly elastic capital supply, heterogeneous returns, and endogenous net foreign asset positions. We find large negative first-order effects of tariffs and markups, even when initial tariffs and markups are zero. We also find that the productivities of industries upstream of investment goods have substantially larger long-run consumption effects than their sales shares would suggest.
论文原文：David Baqaee,Hannes Malmberg,，Long-Run Comparative Statics，DOI---- 10.3386/w33504
同行评审是否惩罚科学风险承担？——基于NIH资助续约的证据(Does Peer Review Penalize Scientific Risk Taking? Evidence from NIH Grant Renewals)
研究问题： 本研究探讨了科学研究过程中承担较高风险是否会在同行评审中受到惩罚，从而影响NIH资助项目续期的概率，以及风险与创新性之间的区别和交互效应。
主要结论： 实证分析表明，在控制了多项研究者和项目特征后，指标显示较高风险承担（如极端尾部表现、颠覆性、转型偏离及独特性）显著降低了项目续期率，而创新性则与较高的续期率正相关，且风险惩罚在新进入者、早期研究者和高新兴领域中更为明显。
研究贡献： 本研究通过构建并比较多维度的风险衡量指标，利用大样本NIH资助数据系统地检验了风险承担对资助续期决策的影响，为理解科学资金分配中的风险偏好问题提供了实证依据和政策启示。
Scientific projects that carry a high degree of risk may be more likely to lead to breakthroughs yet also face challenges in winning the support necessary to be carried out. We analyze the determinants of renewal for more than 100,000 R01 grants from the National Institutes of Health between 1980 and 2015. We use four distinct proxies to measure risk taking： extreme tail outcomes, disruptiveness, pivoting from an investigator’s prior work, and standing out from the crowd in one’s field. After carefully controlling for investigator, grant, and institution characteristics, we measure the association between risk taking and grant renewal. Across each of these measures, we find that risky grants are renewed at markedly lower rates than less risky ones. We also provide evidence that the magnitude of the risk penalty is magnified for more novel areas of research and novice investigators, consistent with the academic community’s perception that current scientific institutions do not motivate exploratory research adequately.
论文原文：Pierre Azoulay,Wesley H. Greenblatt,，Does Peer Review Penalize Scientific Risk Taking? Evidence from NIH Grant Renewals，DOI---- 10.3386/w33495
生育与企业绩效：来自挪威创业者的证据(Childbirth and Firm Performance： Evidence from Norwegian Entrepreneurs)
研究问题：本研究探讨了企业家在成为父母后，尤其是女性创业者，其企业经营绩效如何发生变化以及这种效应背后的可能机制。
主要结论：研究发现，女性创业者在生育后其企业利润显著下降（10年后下降约30%），而男性创业者则未出现类似的负面效应，其企业规模呈扩张趋势。
研究贡献：该研究利用挪威的丰富行政数据和动态匹配方法，不仅提供了关于生育与创业绩效关系的全新实证证据，还深化了对性别性差异及企业家核心作用在企业经营中的理解。
Using multiple administrative data sources from Norway, we examine how firm performance changes after entrepreneurs become parents. Female-owned businesses experience a substantial decline in profits, steadily decreasing to 30% below baseline ten years post-childbirth. In contrast, male-owned businesses show no decline, often growing in revenues and costs after childbirth. The profit decline for female-owned firms is most pronounced among highly capable entrepreneurs, women who are majority owners, and those with working spouses. Entrepreneurial effort is key to performance, and our findings suggest that time demands from childbirth and childcare are a significant determinant of the decline in firm profits.
论文原文：John Bonney,Luigi Pistaferri,Alessandra Voena,，Childbirth and Firm Performance： Evidence from Norwegian Entrepreneurs，DOI---- 10.3386/w33448
地方性政策的目标定位：新市场税收抵免与机会区(The Targeting of Place-Based Policies： The New Markets Tax Credit Versus Opportunity Zones)
研究问题：本研究探讨了新市场税收抵免（NMTC）与机会区（OZ）两种地方性税收政策在投资分配中对经济困境区域目标定位的有效性及其背后决定因素。
主要结论：研究表明，尽管NMTC和OZ均倾向于流向低收入和高贫困地区，但NMTC更集中于最为落后的区域，而OZ虽然投资规模更大，却主要流向具备较高预先私营投资和增长潜力的地区。
研究贡献：本研究通过综合运用公开和保密数据及多元统计方法，为评价和比较地方性税收激励政策的定位效果提供了新的实证证据，并对未来政策设计提出了重要启示。
For a place-based policy to succeed, it must target the right areas—typically those with lower economic development and resident well-being. The U.S. has two major place-based tax policies： the New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC), where government approved entities select investments, and Opportunity Zones (OZs), where private investors choose projects. Despite underlying design differences, both target census tracts with relatively high poverty rates, low median income and weak labor markets. However, OZs tend to attract more investment in areas with higher pre-existing private investment, often located in prosperous counties and high-growth regions. Census tracts lacking investment from either program generally have less private investment, lower home value growth, and lower population growth, suggesting that additional policies may be needed to reach areas less primed for investment.
论文原文：Kevin Corinth,David Coyne,Naomi E. Feldman,Craig Johnson,，The Targeting of Place-Based Policies： The New Markets Tax Credit Versus Opportunity Zones，DOI---- 10.3386/w33414
地方性产业干预能否帮助“被遗忘”的工人？——来自二战及其之后的启示(Do Place-Based Industrial Interventions Help "Left-Behind" Workers? Lessons from WWII and Beyond)
研究问题： 本研究探讨了区域性工业干预是否以及在何种条件下能改善“被遗留”劳动力的经济状况，聚焦于二战期间美国政府建厂的案例与现代干预措施的比较。
主要结论： 实证结果显示，二战时期政府主导的工业投资显著提升了当地居民的高薪半熟练就业和向上流动性，而现代干预往往因设计和落实细节不足，难以实现同等的分配效益，只有同时注重技能提升和职业晋升的措施才能带来有效改善。
研究贡献： 该研究通过运用准实验设计和纵向个体数据，系统评估了工业干预对区域发展和个体长期经济成果的影响，为制定兼顾效率与分配目标的地方性政策提供了理论与实证依据。
Place-based industrial interventions—policies that promote production and investment in specific regions—are often proposed with the intent of improving economic conditions for residents, particularly "left-behind" workers in distressed local labor markets. This chapter discusses the theoretical rationale for the use of industrial interventions to achieve distributional goals and evidence about their effectiveness to that end. I use government-funded plant construction during World War II (WWII) in the United States as a focal case study, which I then compare and contrast to other industrial interventions studied in the literature. While government plant construction during WWII drove an expansion of high-wage semi-skilled jobs open to local residents, which in turn fueled an increase in upward mobility among local residents, the evidence from more recent interventions suggests that modern plant sitings often fail to yield similar benefits to local workers. The implementation details of industrial interventions matter crucially for their incidence on local workers. Interventions that generate opportunities for up-skilling and occupational advancement accessible to target populations appear to be most likely to generate meaningful distributional benefits. I argue that while core production goals during WWII happened to inherently align with the promotion of upward mobility, such alignment is not guaranteed in general and may be the exception rather than the rule in modern contexts.
论文原文：Andrew Garin,，Do Place-Based Industrial Interventions Help "Left-Behind" Workers? Lessons from WWII and Beyond，DOI---- 10.3386/w33418
美国党派隔离加剧的原因与程度——基于2.12亿选民迁徙模式的证据(Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters)
研究问题：本研究探讨美国各级地理单元中不断加剧的党派隔离现象及其内在驱动机制。
主要结论：实证结果表明，从2008年至2020年，美国党派隔离显著上升，主要由代际更替、内部流动、成年选民进出及党派转换等因素共同推动，并在不同政党趋势区域表现出不同的变化态势。
研究贡献：本研究利用全美选民个体级数据构建创新分解模型，不仅细致揭示了各因素对党派隔离变化的相对影响，还为理解政治分化与地理、人口动态之间的互动关系提供了坚实的实证依据。
Using data on the residential location and migration for every voter in U.S. states recording partisan registration between 2008–2020, we find that residential segregation between Democrats and Republicans has increased year over year at all geographic levels, from neighborhoods to Congressional Districts. Individual demographic information reveals that segregation increases for voters of most demographic backgrounds, but that Democratic and Republican trending places have starkly different demographic profiles, thus contributing to the growing confluence of demographics, partisanship, and geography in the United States. We further decompose the change in segregation into different sources. Increases in segregation have not been driven primarily by migration but rather by generational change, as young voters enter the electorate, causing some places to become more homogeneously Democratic, and by existing voters leaving the Democratic party and causing other places to become more Republican.
论文原文：Jacob R. Brown,Enrico Cantoni,Ryan Enos,Vincent Pons,Emilie Sartre,，Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters，DOI---- 10.3386/w33422
