The study estimated the potential impact of prohibitive import barriers in the United States, and of countervailing measures abroad on the economic welfare of consumers and producers in the forest sector of the United States and the rest of the world. To that end, a global forest products model was used to compare the current state of the world, first with a world without imports in the United States, and then without US imports or exports. With prohibitive US protection and no foreign response, the welfare of US producers increased, but by less than the losses of US consumers, while in the rest of the world the producers lost more than the consumers gained. With countervailing measures abroad against US exports, the welfare of US consumers increased, but by less than what US producers lost, and in the rest of the world the consumers’ welfare decreased more than was gained by producers. In sum, a trade war initiated by prohibitive US protectionist policies would decrease the total welfare (producers’ and consumers’ surplus) of most countries involved.下载链接：http://cifer.pbcsf.tsinghua.edu.cn/uploadfile/2018/0725/20180725090424588.pdf
